Oct. 28, China Life, Ping An of China Third Quarterly Bulletin appearance. In the third quarter, China Life net profit down four percent, Ping An of China as a result of Fortis Group and the purchase will be 15.7 billion dollars to a loss of Fukui, net 7.8 billion to the company. A day earlier, China Pacific Insurance (601,601, it shares) 3 have also announced quarterly business investment also made 2,162,000,000 yuan of asset impairment.
Listed companies with the transfer of bad news diametrically opposed, according to the China Insurance Regulatory Commission to the latest statistics, this year, 1-9, the Chinese insurance business continued to grow faster and achieve premium income 793,960,000,000 yuan, up 49%, insurance companies, total assets reached 3,200,000,000,000 yuan.
It is clear that the main business in the fast-growing up in the channel, insurance companies, mainly from the security risks of the use of capital and investment. This is a stirring of the global financial crisis, despite China's insurance industry has been fortunate to be standing on the edge of the storm, but in the global financial industry, the stock market, a high degree of economic interaction, insurance companies should respond to what? How will risk capital to participate in A-share market? The withdrawal of funds from the stock market will be where to vote?
Web connection and Orient Securities analyst Wang Xiaogang, a senior insurance industry to be in a position to comment.
And the Web: China's overseas investment in Ping An Fortis Group suffered a loss, is a fact, Ping An of China in the first three quarters was a net loss of 705,000,000 yuan, the market is less than the amount previously 2,000,000,000 -60 million deficit is expected. In the past, but a month, the group Fortis shares continue to fall deep, safe rate of loss of close to 100%. I would like to ask, how do you predict the investment group Fortis Ping An of China in 2008 net profit impact of the year?
Wang Xiaogang: Ping An of China in 2008 net profit trend throughout the year, depending on the provision in the fourth quarter of Fortis Group Any further equity investment losses. Although the provision in the third quarter of 15.7 billion, but now there are gaps of view, the balance of investment is 81 billion yuan, close to 10 million euros, but is now holding peace Fortis nearly 5% stake in the market value of less than 1 billion euros. If fully in accordance with the current stock price fluctuations, may peace will continue to set aside tens of billion yuan in preparation.
As a result, in the fourth quarter of the number of safety provision is essential to prepare, if no provision in the fourth quarter of the year while profits issue, but if ultra-provision profit 5,000,000,000 difficult.
And the Web: China Pacific Insurance Chong Canggu in the third quarter of the 10 have been adjusted at the same time a provision in the third quarter 2,162,000,000 yuan of assets impairment, leading to a loss in the third quarter. Please analyze the reasons for this?
Wang Xiaogang: The main reason is the A shares or 20%, in Taibao Center Daily News disclosed the number of shares in investment between profit and loss, but the company has not set aside, the current A shares dropped 20 percent must be set aside, and this Normal.
In fact, this is just an accounting game, excluding accrued, how many dollars will not affect the company's net assets, and most analysts is that the net asset value as this is a comprehensive indicator of the balance.
Net income subject to a number of factors, including the impact of such a provision in the third quarter asset impairment, but also floating the release of the earnings, and analysts from the point of view, this is not the most important indicators.
And the Web: Third Quarterly Bulletin, despite the emergence of China Life net profit fell sharply, but the attribution of the first three quarters of shareholders 13,111,000,000 yuan of net profit is still, quite beautiful. China Life to see how to deal with the stock market, investment in security performance?
Wang Xiaogang: in the other two companies are at a loss in the third quarter, China Life's good performance, and an increase in net assets, the agency was better than expected. We estimate that the initial net assets of the three companies will decline, China Life Insurance fell 0.7 percent, China Pacific Insurance fell 3.6 percent, China Ping An was down 7.8 percent. But the reality is that China Life is also up 3% of the super, this is very good. Taibao and safety than we expected better performance, but, after all, the net assets or a loss. Pacific Insurance fell 2.3 percent, Ping An fell 7.2 percent. From the net assets to determine the rate of decline, life is less than Taibao, Taibao less safe, we determine the order of this right. However, the performance of specific, practical better than expected, of course, the best performance of Life.
And the Web: The three major insurance companies on the financial performance, solid growth in the main business is a common bright spot, which the insurance industry as a whole and China's rapid growth in the same situation. Please combination of the status quo, an analysis of the three major companies in the business structure of the difference, as well as the potential for further development.
Wang Xiaogang: The difference is obvious. China Ping An insurance-industry business continues to be the best, the most powerful. Silver on the volume of business insurance, life insurance and Taibao relatively high proportion of Taibao higher. As a result, from the structural analysis of the business, we believe that the best safety, followed by life insurance, the worst Taibao. The reason is that, we estimate that each year the Bank security business may be about 20% of the back, so relatively safe business is the most stable. Even if the Bank of security back to the safety of not affected, but Taibao life and a greater impact, particularly in Taibao, the uncertainties for the three highest.
And the Web: What do you think that at present the major insurance companies operating risks from where?
Wang Xiaogang: The main risk comes from the A-share market investment income.
And the Web: The tide will surrender it?
Wang Xiaogang: the current situation will not, the mass surrender took place in the main species at risk even vote.
And the Web: recently, there have been reports that Tianjin and Shandong for surrender even serious risk.
Wang Xiaogang: Yes, but not even vote, after all, there are security risks at the end of the rate of return, unless they sold some time misleading, to say the guaranteed return of 8%, it might bring about some surrender, under normal circumstances would not bring about large-scale retreat Paul, after all, is one of the few misleading.
And the Web: A decline in stocks is not only economic Postponed domestic investment environment, the growth in premiums for insurance companies to invest greater pressure. What do you think, insurance funds and the allocation of the overall investment in capital markets, which will change?
Wang Xiaogang: The next investment will increase the proportion of debt and varieties, including some of the company's unsecured debt, or synchronize some of the bonds, and will increase investment in alternative investment, including infrastructure, investment in commercial real estate lease domain. The bear market has its advantages, PE bear some of the lower cost of investment.
And the Web: there are media reports of the China Insurance Regulatory Commission recently put forward new requirements for insurance companies, insurance companies should be to maintain and support the capital market, at this stage "not only Zengcang Jiancang." Insurance funds so far this year has always been regarded as the capital market "short" the main force in the Shanghai Composite Index approaching 1,600-point mark, you believe that the insurance funds in capital markets, the role?
Wang Xiaogang: insurance money is not the role of the market to bear any responsibility, but manage to obtain the greatest return on investment, so how on how to do so.
The China Insurance Regulatory Commission proposed that the window is only a guide, he did not have real statutory right to regulate insurance companies. I think the guidance of the China Insurance Regulatory Commission is intended mainly to remind great importance to the insurance companies win their own interests, if the insurance loss, for no pay.
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