Significantly cut down the risk capital investment income | | life possible, "Li Chasun"
Wang Xujin: cut interest rates on the insurance industry is a major positive | | Topic: the central bank sharply cut interest rates 108 basis points Zhou Xu: the development of the insurance industry to expand domestic demand to promote economic growth
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The central bank cut interest rates for the magnitude of the number of the insurance industry a bit of a surprise. A newspaper interview yesterday the industry will cut interest rates on the insurance industry Saying "Unfortunately, in extremely lucky." Unfortunately, means that the insurance companies to cut interest rates to be affected by the development of new business, the blessing is that next year Qiayu the insurance industry to adjust business strategy overall contraction of business, big business and the will is not strong, so too should have little impact on interest rates.
In fact, an interview yesterday, the majority of the insurance analyst's view is that the insurance companies, regardless of rate hikes or rate cuts, there is no absolute good and bad points of the main assets of insurance companies depend on the structure and operations Strategy and other factors.
Everbright Securities analyst in the insurance Xiao Chao-hu appears that the interest rate change on the impact of two insurance companies, on the one hand, the stock of debt of the book value of assets, on the other hand, is an investment in the future rate of return. "In the current situation of relatively bad assets of insurance companies, cut its profitability is declining. From the rate cut loose monetary policy and, more importantly, the future rate of return on investment to reduce the impact of the new The rate of decline in investment income, insurance companies will open up new business in a dilemma. "
The vote in the Securities analyst Xu Shou-de insurance point of view is that the rising rate cut is good news bad, depending on how insurance companies do. "We believe that in the next year not optimistic about stock returns, interest rates on the insurance companies is a big positive."
Positive support his point of view of the three major reasons: First, deposit insurance relative to bonds, small-scale, the rate cut on the negative impact of interest income, while interest rates on the insurance settlement will play a forward interest rate cut The role of the insurance costs will have a decline; the second, from 2007 to 2008, through insurance companies expand business scale, a large number of premium collected in order to configure a number of high-interest bonds, these bonds will be for the next Access to the huge spread; Third, insurance companies and big business do not have a strong will of the new asset allocation funds limited the pressure.
In good or bad, analysts say there have been some differences. Orient Securities analyst Wang Xiaogang insurance yesterday told reporters that "the rate cut after the one-year deposit interest rate of only 2.52 percent, close to the target rate of insurance products online 2.5 percent means that many years ago, suffering insurance companies benefit Bad idea may be in sight loss. Of course, this rate cut, three-year deposit rate 3.6 percent, still higher than the 2.5 percent interest rate ceiling of the book, Licha Sun has not yet become a real threat. But-than-expected rate cut As well as the rapid spread of the contraction of space, on the whole, the negative impact on the insurance companies can not be questioned. "
Changjiang Securities analyst Li Cong to see the insurance is a long-term low interest rate environment, investment in the insurance industry. "My view is that it does not matter how much to cut interest rates as long as the symmetry. The most crucial is that the time for low-interest can not be too long. Such as access to long-term low-interest environment, the impact of the insurance industry, will lead to a lot of matches in the insurance investment Low-income products. In that case, it will be very difficult investment income rose. "(Huang Lei, Shanghai Securities News)
Significantly cut down the risk capital investment income will be hit or risk Licha Sun
The central bank yesterday announced that financial institutions reduced one-year yuan loans to keep the benchmark interest rate 1.08 percentage points in all other grades of the deposit and loan period of interest rate adjusted accordingly. The industry believes that such a sharp cut down return on investment of insurance funds, the insurance industry on the whole, will have a negative impact. Insurance companies to reinvest the proceeds of the bond market will decline in traditional life insurance products in space will be spread compression. In addition, as the sharp decline in interest rates, the possibility of risks Licha Sun also increased significantly.
The central bank cut interest rates substantially, it will further lower bond yields, the future of insurance funds in the bond market will be a serious decline in investment income.
Orient Securities analyst Wang Xiaogang, insurance companies in the allocation of assets and liabilities for a long time period has been the existence of "mismatch", liability insurance policy for a long time period is usually 15 years, and the basic assets for a long time period is 7-8 years, which means that a large part of the old Debt after the expiry of the re-investment will be faced with lower investment income.
In addition, the State Council Development Research Center of the financial complex Chen Daofu, deputy director of the Research Office, said insurance funds in the bond market has been a net buying in the bond yields fell, prices of the situation, the new premium return on investment will be lower .
Bond yields dropped, making the insurance companies have been held in bond prices, "a corresponding rise in" contributions to the insurance company for the floating surplus, but the vote in the Securities analyst Xu insurance Thu Duc do not think this is a positive. According to his analysis, insurance is not the allocation of bonds in order to obtain the opportunity of the transaction, so the main due to take hold in the form of bonds from the market price of Change.
Wang Xiaogang also of the view that even if the insurance companies to float part of the surplus cash, of course, will increase profits in the current period, but this is part of the funds to continue to invest in, facing the same lower bond investment income.
In addition, he pointed out that the investment income due to the decline of traditional life insurance products in space will be spread compression. As the traditional life insurance products, the cost of insurance has been fixed, the decline in investment income to its lower margin space, insurance companies, profits would be affected. However, universal insurance, risk sharing, is due to the policy holders and insurance companies a total of risk, coupled with the rate cut on the settlement of such products or lower dividend rate will advance to play the role of the insurance costs will drop , So this part of the products do not affect the profits of insurance companies.
However, the drastic rate cut this agent may be aroused positive reaction in the stock market, insurance funds in the stock market or will be harvested.
Li Chasun risk or hitRate cut cycle, the arrival of the market means that interest rates will be gradually approaching the life insurance industry's lowest cost of capital lines, Li Chasun risks may come.
Licha Sun Life Insurance Company refers to the use of capital investment income lower than the effective life insurance policy, the average interest rate target caused by the loss. China Insurance Regulatory Commission stipulates that the traditional life insurance products is scheduled to cap interest rates at 2.5%.
"Therefore, to determine whether there Licha Sun, it is necessary to look at the insurance fund investment income is less than 2.5 percent." Wang Xiaogang, "The deposit insurance alone, the one-year deposit rate to 2.52 percent after adjustment However, due to general insurance companies and banks enter into the larger deposits, real interest rates close to three-year deposit rate 3.6 percent, higher than the 2.5 percent target rate, it is still not constitute risks Licha Sun. "
Xu Shou and Germany also indicated that the deposit insurance relative to bonds, small-scale and therefore interest rate cut on the negative impact.
However, if the economic situation has not improved in the future, efforts to cut interest rates further, bond market interest rates close to the 2.5 percent level of risk Licha Sun on the far away. Everbright Securities analyst Xiao Chao-hu said that if a further decline in interest rates, the new policy will be faced with the risk of Licha Sun.
But the rate cut on the insurance industry is not entirely bad. Experts believe that this reduced the interest rate on deposits will increase the attractiveness of insurance products at the same time, such efforts to stimulate the economy, but also conducive to the development of the insurance industry as a whole. (China Securities Journal Ding Bing)
Life possible, "Li Chasun"
Within two months the central bank cut interest rates three times in a row, and the sharply cut interest rates, making the RMB deposits one-year benchmark interest rate from the current 3.6 percent down to 2.52 percent of direct, close to 2.5 percent of life insurance policies is scheduled to cap interest rates, that is, life insurance The minimum cost of liability insurance policy. The industry believes that 10 years ago, troubled by the life insurance market, "Licha Sun", will probably once again.
The industry is generally expected that for more than 80% of investment assets into fixed deposits, bonds, and other types of fixed-income assets of the insurance industry, the continued decline in interest rates means that the deposit interest income and lower income due bonds, combined with capital markets and investment in the stock Rarely seen improvement in a short period of time, the insurance will further narrow the spread, or even possible, "Li Chasun," endanger the solvency of insurance companies.
2008 investment income generally suffered particularly heavy losses of the equity investments of insurance companies from the financial crisis to be inspired by a series of "Shangjindonggu" changes, such as efforts to improve the structure of the business, seeking to match assets and liabilities, enhance the investment culture And so on, but the incentive to cut interest rates, related to life insurance, "Licha Sun" highlights the concerns of a sudden, as soon as possible how to adjust the structure of the business, how to find matching assets and liabilities so that the "Licha Sun" to a minimum, This is a lot of risk into the current prices can not avoid the two major problems.
Daobi life insurance policy, "the bottom line costs"
In the context of continued rate cut, in view of the insurance to investment-based fixed-income assets (assets investment accounts for more than 80%) and duration of assets and liabilities do not match, especially life insurance companies will cut interest rates by the negative impact of this Have reached a consensus in the industry.
Due to sustained investment in the stock and cut interest rates failed to provide clear contribution to the insurance and investment income caused by declining investment income that is lower than the life insurance policy if the average interest rate target, which will form a "Licha Sun," which has become a life insurance companies to cut interest rates During a major crisis. In 1995 to 1999 the rate cut cycle, as a result of limited investment channels, several major life insurance company, therefore emerged a large number of high-interest rate policy, and caused varying degrees of "Licha Sun", not only corporate earnings have fallen sharply, and consumers At the same time, confidence was dealt a severe blow to the entire insurance industry have serious negative effects.
However, analysts pointed out that the heavy premium, light profit mode of operation and of course the development of China's life insurance industry in a short number of years, the lack of relevant experience, life insurance companies and management approach to performance appraisal system is not perfect size only to its emphasis on efficiency is not important Reasons.
"The incentive to cut interest rates, 'Licha Sun' is behind the deeper reason is the unreasonable structure of the business and assets and liabilities do not match." Insurance Central University of Finance and Economics, Dean said Professor Hao Yansu, insurance, "Li Chasun "The formation of risk, from high-risk business strategy is not clear, unreasonable product structure and the mismatch of assets and liabilities, such as multiple factors, most of which is the main reason for balance does not match the business and the structure is irrational, resulting in capital gains than life The average interest rate policy is scheduled, and a threat to the solvency of enterprises.
It is therefore proposed that the industry, from the point of view of matching assets and liabilities and optimize the structure of the business and improve portfolio management, risk will be reduced Li Chasun a minimum, should be life insurance companies take into consideration the focus, not only in the medium term rate cut On the agenda.
"There are three reasons for life insurance companies to cut interest rates in the cycle of damage." Ping An Securities Shao-chin, chief researcher at the think, first of all has been the policy of re-investment rate of return will decline, followed by the new policy of price increases led to the decline in consumer demand, finally, Than the cost of the policy of slow decline in investment income, it will have a time difference.
Goldman Sachs recently made by the insurance industry analysis to the report, the 10-year government bonds yield from the mid-year from 4.5 to 4.6 percent currently down nearly 3 percent, the central bank continued to cut interest rates in the background, coupled with investors based on current investment The environment is more inclined to prefer low-risk bonds and increase investment, bonds investment income will decline further.
But the decline in investment income, due to intense competition and continued existence of insurance companies in order to maintain the attractiveness of their products and market competitiveness, not necessarily with the same speed down at the end of life of the policy interest rate, the Goldman Sachs analysis that Cut circumstances, "the investment earnings of insurance companies than the decline in financing costs at a faster pace."
Structural problems to be solved
Life insurance business structure is irrational, that is not the interest rate-sensitive, pure protection products is not high proportion; mismatch of assets and liabilities, that is, high interest rate policy can not be a long-term, high-yield investment asset allocation, the two major structural problems Exist, plus the rate of failure to open up the market and become the life insurance industry, "Li Chasun" The crux of the problem.
In mid-August to convene a national work conference on life insurance, life insurance Jian Guanceng directed at the "Business Development Bank of security too, in the mid-stream business to pay a disproportionately large" and so on, require insurance companies to suppress silver business growth, adjustment and optimization of business Structure, in which the high-risk high omnipotent general insurance settlement rate, down Jian Guanceng become one of the key.
Since September this year, the unemployment insurance universal insurance products have begun to decline in settlement rates, the Goldman Sachs analysis of the report points out that this phenomenon will help to reduce the spread of the pressure on the insurance business.
In the initial stage of the life insurance companies, business structure in order to return the individual-life business, group life insurance business mainly with a single interest rate policy is scheduled to interest rates compared to the neglect of its long-term characteristics of the compound and, therefore, in determining the fixed-rate products Related rates, companies are not expected to occur over the next interest rate adjustment, resulting in the life insurance industry with the bank interest rate fluctuations and passive products is scheduled to adjust interest rates.
At present, new life insurance products, including dividend-type universal life insurance products and insurance products even vote, with the exception of investment risk insurance for even by its own policy holders, to a certain extent, to avoid the risk of fluctuations in interest rates of universal insurance, the settlement rate determined In the competitive environment in the same "up-down easy to difficult," characteristics.
"The first life insurance products to protect the return of rational functions, followed by a steady rate of implementation of market-oriented reform, which is effective against an important measure of interest rate risk." Hao said that the Soviet Union speech.
And the business structure is reasonable or not closely linked to the other structural problem is matching of assets and liabilities. In the capital market during the hot, a lot of high risk should be changes in consumer demand have been introduced as a selling point to high-yield financial products, corporate business strategy and product strategy is often subject to "expand the size of assets under management," the cause, and with a high level of interest rates The corresponding investment assets may not be effective allocation has been relatively narrow investment channels for insurance funds limited the ability to add value, so that investment income can not support the policy interest rate target.
China Insurance Regulatory Commission spokesman, Assistant Chairman Yuan Li said earlier that at present the State Council has approved the investment of insurance funds and private equity companies to expand investment in infrastructure pilot. Analysis of the Goldman Sachs report forecast that the fiscal policy to stimulate the insurance company should be able to increase investment in long-term assets, and because of government measures to stimulate the implementation of the rights and interests of insurance companies and investment decline in the proportion, A-share market to the insurance companies will be marginal negative impact Will be getting smaller and smaller.
"It is envisaged to strengthen supervision (solvency, silver and security business, product pricing) should be able to reduce the industry to improve profit margins and cut-throat competition, and liberalization of investment control (real estate, infrastructure, direct investment) is to improve the yield and long-term investment Earnings stability. "Analysis of the Goldman Sachs report forecast that with the life insurance product mix improvements, the new business profit margin should be increased. (Financial Times Fang)
Wang Xujin: cut interest rates on the insurance industry is a major positive
And hearing the news on November 26 in the afternoon, the People's Bank of China decided on November 27, 2008, the financial institutions to cut one-year yuan loans to keep the benchmark interest rate 1.08 percentage points each. At the same time, lower the deposit reserve ratio by 1 percentage point, taking down small and medium-sized financial institutions RMB deposit reserve ratio by 2 percentage points.
Beijing Technology and Business University Wang Xujin Head of the Department of Insurance in an inquiry and telephone network connection that the lower the insurance industry is a major positive, the rate cut as a result of positive stock market from the investment point of view, for those who are already insured risk even vote for Is a good opportunity.
Wang Xujin believe that the great good to cut interest rates because of the stock market, the first interest rate cut will raise investment in the insurance industry profitability.
Second, the interest rate cut will lead to further improve the rate of insurance. Wang Xujin pointed out that interest rates will be cut and other fiscal policy to stimulate the economy together, then will raise the level of income, insurance rates is only natural. (Web and Wu Diego)
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