Recent statistics from the China Insurance Regulatory Commission show that in January this year to 10 months, the realization of the original life insurance premium income 585,881,000,000 yuan, despite 367,122,000,000 yuan over the same period last year growth of 59.59 percent, but in October alone On the life insurance premium income 40,287,000,000 yuan, the highest since February this year, single premium life insurance on low incomes, and the figure in September than in a single month than the Central 53,907,000,000 yuan premium has dropped by nearly 25 percentage points, single - On life insurance premiums since the second quarter of this year since there have been decreased.
According to the China Life Insurance Company, and other recently released data show that in October premium, life insurance premium growth in October with varying degrees of decline, Bank and Insurance premium income is relatively significant contraction of the important reasons, but according to the Shenyin Wanguo Analysis of the report pointed out that the real need to pay attention to is that a risk premium channels growth also appeared in varying degrees of decline.
Banks and Insurance Companies under pressure
China Life, China Pacific Insurance, Ping An of China recently announced one after another premium income in October, data showed that China Life in January this year to October unaudited total of the original insurance premium income of about 264,800,000,000 yuan, Ping An Life is about 84,500,000,000 Yuan, Pacific Life is about 58.9 billion, three life insurance premium income in October with varying degrees slowdown in growth, analysts pointed out that a number of institutions, life insurance premium growth slowed down and asked the Bank of China Insurance Regulatory Commission Security-related product sales.
Prior to the convening of a national insurance work conference, pointed out that the China Insurance Regulatory Commission in January this year to July silver 244,300,000,000 yuan insurance premium income, the proportion as high as 50.7 percent, a clear "step up supervision of products, to carry out special inspection of the Banking, Insurance, Wholesale business to pay down the scale, lower interest rates universal insurance settlement, the Bank reduced the growth rate of insurance business, life insurance to achieve a soft landing. "
The regulatory window seems to have become the guiding effect. China Life from the data: in October on the realization of single-premium income 16.2 billion in a single month than in September decreased 23.4 billion, and monthly premiums increase from the year-on-year growth in September fell 53% to 42%; 10 months of the size of the total premium income amounted to 264,800,000,000 yuan, up 55.76 percent, the growth rate slightly lower than in September.
GF Securities analysis of the report, China Life Insurance premium growth rate of decline was due to the Bank to pay insurance business and wholesale business accounted for a larger share of total premium income, such as wholesale in the first half of the total premium income to pay the premium income of 61%, Bank and Insurance Business Of the total premium income of 48%, according to the China Insurance Regulatory Commission proposed in September this year, down from December to pay wholesale business of the size of the request, Bank of China Life to its insurance business take the initiative to be adjusted, resulting in September and October monthly premium growth Year-on-year decline. According to relevant statistics, China Life channel for the growth rate this year from the first eight months of nearly 150% to less than 130%, premium growth has declined markedly.
In addition, the data show that China Pacific Insurance life insurance premium growth in September from 53.5% to 46.4% in October, Bank and Insurance channels growth this year from the first eight months of nearly 150% to 110% of the past, the Bank of Shanghai Wan analysis of the slowdown that occurred in October; China Ping An Life Insurance premium growth rate from September's 29.8 percent fell slightly in October of 29.6 percent, Bank and Insurance premium channels growth in the last 2 months Also fell, but the industry also pointed out that peace as a result of a lower proportion Bank security business, so its not enough to explain the overall decline in premium growth.
"We believe that led to the decline in the total premium growth of the most important reason is that this year, the China Insurance Regulatory Commission in late August for insurance companies to carry out window guidance, control the investment requirements of the scale of business products, including banking insurance, investment insurance, and even universal insurance and so on Products. "Shenyin Wanguo analyst Yu Bin, in its report that due to the lag time of the reasons for the premium growth in October begin to be felt, particularly in the banking insurance premium growth slowed significantly.
The risk of slowdown worries
"But let us really disturbed by the fact that individual channels signs of a decline in premium growth." Yu Bin, in its analysis of the report that the industry worry that the economy down fears could lead to long-term residents to buy insurance payment products, in particular, the wishes of the And the ability to drop in on the other hand, as a result of the first 3 quarters of the insurance business indicators generally better to complete, did not rule out the company's business units may wish to control the growth rate in 2009 in order to avoid over-assessment targets.
According to relevant statistics, China Life Insurance premium growth rate of individual channels from the first eight months this year dropped to 21% of the first 10 months of 14%, Shenyin Wanguo analysis, which showed that its September to October a dangerous channel Negative growth.
"China Life insurance products, a strategy recently to pay a long-term sales, particularly in Corning's 10-year series, as the long-term product sales more difficult, the decline in premiums." Yu Bin of the view that the global economy in times of crisis, Residents of long-term revenue is expected to become unstable, long-term payment products will be more difficult to increase, the premium growth slowed this strategy is the inevitable result of the adjustment.
Another statistics show that China Pacific Insurance premium channels for personal growth this year from the first eight months of 15% to the first 10 months of 13%, the report speculated that the Shenyin Wanguo, a risk Taibao deceleration is mainly due to Has recently ceased its basic universal insurance product sales, combined with Taibao in the 2007 quarter, following the launch of 3 new universal insurance products, led to the October 2007 premiums have jumped by one, in fact Taibao dividend risk has been shifted to the main product Structure, sales of new single in the last 2 months has maintained a steady growth, so that Taibao individual life insurance premium growth in October was not "clearly abnormal" drop.
In addition, Ping An of China in September this year, a dangerous channel in October although the decline in premium income, but not negative growth, analysts believe that universal insurance products are still safe to maintain a high level of interest rates settled, resulting in his personal life Growth has been rapid.
"We estimate that over the long-term peace can not be other companies to maintain a higher settlement rate, if the settlement back to the average level of interest rates is expected to channel their insurance premiums a growth rate may decline." Case of Shenyin Wanguo analysis of the report said.
"The capital market lead remains in the doldrums with a substantial decline in investment income, insurance universal insurance products in the monthly billing rate cut, dividends at the end of the insurance product Dividend may be substantially lower levels, these factors will make insurance products less attractive." DENG Ting States Securities researcher believes that in addition to the capital market remains in the doldrums, the regulatory authorities are stepping up security on the silver sales supervision, the Bank's insurance premium income to sustain high growth, is expected to insurance premium income in 2009 will increase significantly Slow down.
In 2009 for a channel for insurance premium income, is expected to Shenyin Wanguo, the restructuring may result in life insurance premium growth year-on-year changes, and management indicators can also lead to premium growth slowed down a dangerous channel will continue to remain stable Growth, but growth may be more significant decline in 2008, or is likely to decline to reach 10-20 percent between.
"China Life, China Pacific Insurance may have negative growth, China Ping An Bank as a result of less dependence on sales of insurance, premium income growth volatility is likely significantly smaller than the other two companies, but the risk of universal insurance sales channels Inevitably will be clearing the decrease in interest rates, resulting in a decline in the attractiveness of the product. "Capital securities analysis of the case forecast.
No comments:
Post a Comment