The first three quarters of the Big Three were taken on insurance premiums 400,000,000,000 yuan

The industry is expected in the fourth quarter of the total monthly life insurance premium income growth would decline markedly in the first half of next year and the situation is likely worse

Leaving aside decline in investment income, from the main insurance performance, the A shares of the three insurers listed companies to hand over a good "report card." The first three quarters, China Life Insurance (601,628, it shares), Ping An of China (601,318, it shares), China Pacific Insurance (601,601, it shares) recorded a total premium 407,600,000,000 yuan, year-on-year growth rate of more than 30%.

The rapid development of such a situation, can continue to the end of this year or even next year, the market has become the focus of attention. From the Big Three have been disclosed in three of the Quarterly Bulletin, we can see some clues. In the industry view, if from 2007 to 2008 is in the first half of the insurance industry of the harvest season, then next year will be the season of winter and farming.

Inflection point premium

"In the first three quarters of this year, Ping An of China to maintain steady growth in premium income, which, in the third quarter had net premiums earned for the 29,114,000,000 yuan more than in the second quarter than the ring fell 5.5 percent, reflecting the Bank of contraction and investment channels for insurance products to attract Factors such as the decline of its premium income slightly negative impact. "CICC insurance Zhou researcher at the Third Quarterly Bulletin Comments judge in the case.

Chinese safety problems is not an isolated phenomenon. Orient Securities insurance that the researcher Wang Xiaogang, China Pacific Insurance (601,601, it shares) in the first three quarters have been earned premiums 68,000,000,000 yuan, which is lower than originally expected 2,000,000,000 yuan. The main reason is that life insurance premium income in September low of 52 billion yuan, up 21 percent, significantly lower than the first 8 months of growth of 57%. September has always been with the January, March and June of the same annual premium income of the top four, while premium income in September this year, even lower than August's 5.7 billion. The main reason is estimated that the China Insurance Regulatory Commission on Banking and Insurance business "window guidance."

Of course, in addition to regulatory control, capital markets also play a role in drag. The first three quarters of this year, China Life Insurance (601,628, it shares) in the Chinese accounting standards under the premium income has been earned over the same period last year increased by 57.6 percent, but the ring more than in the second quarter fell by 17.7 percent.

To the industry to see three of the Quarterly Bulletin of the problems is: this year's outbreak of the life insurance industry growth to benefit from major investment-insurance alternatives to stocks, funds and other investment products caused by the downturn in capital flows conversion, and the next year once the dividend rate and Clearing a noticeable decline in interest rates will affect the banking and insurance investment type products, resulting in the formation of premium income will be ups and downs. In addition, the solvency of insurance companies listed on a substantial decline in the capital even more scarce of the bank insurance development will inevitably be limited.

Food store signs

"Dongcang season, to preserve strength is the most important." Described in the next year the life insurance industry in the state to survive, a life insurance company, said high-level.

In the industry are generally expected in the fourth quarter of this year, the monthly total life insurance premium income growth will drop back to 20%. For the first half of next year's premium income is likely to be even worse. They believe that the bull market when the accumulated surplus of floating basic depleted reserves are also smooth consumption by half. Next year, investment income may fall to 3% to 3.5% level, Bank and Insurance growth is flat or negative growth.

A senior insurance analyst analysis, life insurance companies in order to resolve the current difficulties, mainly depends on three possibilities: reduced settlement rates, bond yields rose sharply, or the domestic stock market increased significantly. However, after the two ways to achieve it seems to me that the current difficulties. All the signs indicate that life insurance companies have adopted a way to start the first store grain for the winter.

To undertake in August fell substantially on the basis of most of the life insurance company in September announced by the universal insurance settlement rate, now has a further downward trend. Universal insurance settlement in the interest rate from 7 to a high of 6 percent for the month fell to 4-5 percent in the vicinity, have lowered the minimum to 3.65 percent. According to industry expects next year will also usher in a dangerous dividends down the peak. "We expect that in January next year China Life will be the first to lower dividend rate." An insurance analyst said.

On the other hand, the reduction in interest rates decline in premiums is not a good thing. With the dividend rate of universal insurance settlement and a decline in interest rates, interest rates, the Bank's non-insurance healthy competition war came to an end, the industry began to compete more rational. Insurance companies over the next two years the development of the main tone is likely to be cautious systolic and operational control of stock investment. A joint venture life insurance company related to the person in charge told the reporter, "Next, we will pay attention to cost control, product margins. Difference in investment income, cost control is more significant impact on the merits."

In entering the cycle of rate cut, after the decline in investment income, insurance products also highlights the greatest rate of return will be transferred to the function of security risks come. In the product selection, policy holders may abandon the investment-type insurance, choose to buy some of the traditional savings-type insurance products.