Within two months the central bank cut interest rates three times in a row, and the sharply cut interest rates, making the RMB deposits one-year benchmark interest rate from the current 3.6 percent down to 2.52 percent of direct, close to 2.5 percent of life insurance policies is scheduled to cap interest rates, that is, life insurance The minimum cost of liability insurance policy. The industry believes that 10 years ago, troubled by the life insurance market, %26quot;Licha Sun%26quot;, will probably once again.
The industry is generally expected that for more than 80% of investment assets into fixed deposits, bonds, and other types of fixed-income assets of the insurance industry, the continued decline in interest rates means that the deposit interest income and lower income due bonds, combined with capital markets and equity investments in the Rarely seen improvement in a short period of time, the insurance will further narrow the spread, or even possible, %26quot;Li Chasun,%26quot; endanger the solvency of insurance companies.
2008 investment income generally suffered particularly heavy losses of the equity investments of insurance companies from the financial crisis to be inspired by a series of %26quot;Shangjindonggu%26quot; changes, such as efforts to improve the structure of the business, seeking to match assets and liabilities, enhance the investment culture And so on, but the incentive to cut interest rates, related to life insurance, %26quot;Licha Sun%26quot; highlights the concerns of a sudden, as soon as possible how to adjust the structure of the business, how to find matching assets and liabilities so that the %26quot;Licha Sun%26quot; to a minimum, This is a lot of risk into the current prices can not avoid the two major problems.
Daobi life insurance policy, %26quot;the bottom line costs%26quot;
In the context of continued rate cut, in view of the insurance to investment-based fixed-income assets (assets investment accounts for more than 80%) and duration of assets and liabilities do not match, especially life insurance companies will cut interest rates by the negative impact of this Have reached a consensus in the industry.
Due to sustained investment in the stock and cut interest rates failed to provide clear contribution to the insurance and investment income caused by declining investment income that is lower than the life insurance policy if the average interest rate target, which will form a %26quot;Licha Sun,%26quot; which has become a life insurance companies to cut interest rates During a major crisis. In 1995 to 1999 the rate cut cycle, as a result of limited investment channels, several major life insurance company, therefore emerged a large number of high-interest rate policy, and caused varying degrees of %26quot;Licha Sun%26quot;, not only corporate earnings have fallen sharply, and consumers At the same time, confidence was dealt a severe blow to the entire insurance industry have serious negative effects.
However, analysts pointed out that the heavy premium, light profit mode of operation and of course the development of China's life insurance industry in a short number of years, the lack of relevant experience, life insurance companies and management approach to performance appraisal system is not perfect size only to its emphasis on efficiency is not important Reasons.
%26quot;The incentive to cut interest rates, 'Licha Sun' is behind the deeper reason is the unreasonable structure of the business and assets and liabilities do not match.%26quot; Of the Central University of Finance and Economics president of the Insurance Institute, said Professor Hao Yansu, insurance, %26quot;Li Chasun %26quot;The formation of risk, from high-risk business strategy is not clear, unreasonable product structure and the mismatch of assets and liabilities, such as multiple factors, most of which is the main reason for balance does not match the business and the structure is irrational, resulting in capital gains than life The average interest rate policy is scheduled, and a threat to the solvency of enterprises.
It is therefore proposed that the industry, from the point of view of matching assets and liabilities and optimize the structure of the business and improve portfolio management, risk will be reduced Li Chasun a minimum, should be life insurance companies take into consideration the focus, not only in the medium term rate cut On the agenda.
%26quot;There are three reasons for life insurance companies to cut interest rates in the cycle of damage.%26quot; Ping An Securities Shao-chin, chief researcher at the think, first of all has been the policy of re-investment rate of return will decline, followed by the new policy of price increases led to the decline in consumer demand, finally, Than the cost of the policy of slow decline in investment income, it will have a time difference.
Goldman Sachs recently made by the insurance industry analysis to the report, the 10-year government bonds yield from the mid-year from 4.5 to 4.6 percent currently down nearly 3 percent, the central bank continued to cut interest rates in the background, coupled with investors based on current investment The environment is more inclined to prefer low-risk bonds and increase investment, bonds investment income will decline further.
But the decline in investment income, due to intense competition and continued existence of insurance companies in order to maintain the attractiveness of their products and market competitiveness, not necessarily with the same speed down at the end of life of the policy interest rate, the Goldman Sachs analysis that Cut circumstances, %26quot;the investment earnings of insurance companies than the decline in financing costs at a faster pace.%26quot;
Structural problems to be solved
Life insurance business structure is irrational, that is not the interest rate-sensitive, pure protection products is not high proportion; mismatch of assets and liabilities, that is, high interest rate policy can not be a long-term, high-yield investment asset allocation, the two major structural problems Exist, plus the rate of failure to open up the market and become the life insurance industry, %26quot;Li Chasun%26quot; The crux of the problem.
In mid-August to convene a national work conference on life insurance, life insurance Jian Guanceng directed at the %26quot;Business Development Bank of security too, in the mid-stream business to pay a disproportionately large%26quot; and so on, require insurance companies to suppress silver business growth, adjustment and optimization of business Structure, in which the high-risk high omnipotent general insurance settlement rate, down Jian Guanceng become one of the key.
Since September this year, the unemployment insurance universal insurance products have begun to decline in settlement rates, the Goldman Sachs analysis of the report points out that this phenomenon will help to reduce the spread of the pressure on the insurance business.
In the initial stage of the life insurance companies, business structure in order to return the individual-life business, group life insurance business mainly with a single interest rate policy is scheduled to interest rates compared to the neglect of its long-term characteristics of the compound and, therefore, in determining the fixed-rate products Related rates, companies are not expected to occur over the next interest rate adjustment, resulting in the life insurance industry with the bank interest rate fluctuations and passive products is scheduled to adjust interest rates.
At present, new life insurance products, including dividend-type universal life insurance products and insurance products even vote, with the exception of investment risk insurance for even by the insured to bear, to some extent to avoid the risk of fluctuations in interest rates of universal insurance, the settlement rate determined In the competitive environment in the same %26quot;up-down easy to difficult,%26quot; characteristics.
%26quot;The first life insurance products to protect the return of rational functions, followed by a steady rate of implementation of market-oriented reform, which is effective against an important measure of interest rate risk.%26quot; Hao said that the Soviet Union speech.
And the business structure is reasonable or not closely linked to the other structural problem is matching of assets and liabilities. In the capital market during the hot, a lot of high risk should be changes in consumer demand have been introduced as a selling point to high-yield financial products, corporate business strategy and product strategy is often subject to %26quot;expand the size of assets under management,%26quot; the cause, and with a high level of interest rates The corresponding investment assets may not be effective allocation has been relatively narrow limits the investment channels for insurance funds value-added capabilities, so that investment income can not support the policy interest rate target.
China Insurance Regulatory Commission spokesman, Assistant Chairman Yuan Li said earlier that at present the State Council has approved the investment of insurance funds and private equity companies to expand investment in infrastructure pilot. Analysis of the Goldman Sachs report forecast that the fiscal policy to stimulate the insurance company should be able to increase investment in long-term assets, and because of government measures to stimulate the implementation of the rights and interests of insurance companies and investment decline in the proportion, A-share market to the insurance companies will be marginal negative impact Will be getting smaller and smaller.
%26quot;It is envisaged to strengthen supervision (solvency, silver and security business, product pricing) should be able to reduce the industry to improve profit margins and cut-throat competition, and liberalization of investment control (real estate, infrastructure, direct investment) is to improve the yield and long-term investment Earnings stability. %26quot;Analysis of the Goldman Sachs report forecast that with the life insurance product mix improvements, the new business profit margin should be increased.
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