Dialogue, vice president of the Beijing University School of Economics, Professor Sun Qixiang Head of the Department of Insurance
To enter in 2008, China's insurance industry is facing unprecedented severe and complicated situation.
Increase premiums in the first half of a record high, before the major domestic insurance premiums will continue high growth momentum so far. January to September, the insurance industry to achieve the original insurance premium income 793,960,000,000 yuan, up 49%; and at the same time, support the development of the industry's other "wheels" - insurance investment income by the capital markets has shrunk significantly dragged down this year in the first three Quarter, the use of insurance funds an average yield of 2.1 percent, and is not in the same period last year, the 1 / 5.
With the global financial crisis spread, the global insurance giant American International Group (AIG) on the verge of bankruptcy, it has long been a heavy blow to the undefeated winners of the insurance industry's confidence. China People's Insurance, Ping An of China (601,318, it shares), China Pacific Insurance (601,601, it shares) three quarterly losses, China Life Insurance (601,628, it shares) of the profit decline, but also people feel the smell of the development of the industry " Cold, "As a result, the insurance industry," winter "the voice sounded.
How are we going to determine the next step of China's insurance industry development trends? A few days ago, reporter with the Beijing University School of Economics, Vice President and Head of the Department of Insurance, China's insurance and Social Security Research Center, Professor Sun Qixiang, director of the insurance industry on what course to follow in the future, insurance investment channels open up new medical reform in the health insurance program to position the insurance industry hot spots Engaged in a dialogue. Professor Sun Qixiang still optimistic about the future development of the insurance industry. She said: five factors that will support China's insurance industry continued to show growth.
Loss of investment income is not the same as the rapid development of the insurance industry's stagnation
Reporter: At present, the seriousness of the situation makes the economic development of the insurance industry in the unreasonable structure of the more prominent; and development of the insurance industry as an important indicator, the decline in investment income insurance, the insurance industry to endure the test of volatile capital markets. As a result, some of the insurance industry expressed concern about the future development, the development of the insurance industry express the times really have to put an end?
Sun Qi Xiang: I personally do not think so. In 2007 the development of capital markets, improve investment income compared block. However, insurance companies, insurance origin of the investment - money from insurance premiums. For example, if an insurance company insurance structure is the most traditional insurance, and the other major insurance companies to operate even for risk. As the vote even large-scale insurance funds, insurance funds come in after getting the investment operation of capital markets, the company's growth potential at this stage sure, but soon the main reason for the capital markets, investment income is obtained, it is difficult to say Origin is in business development.
As a result, when we analyze the market, from 2007 to 2008 the insurance industry as a normal development is not accurate. Look at 80 of the last century so far, insurance investment income increased only in the last year to reach 10-12 percent, while investment income in the past so many years, an average of 3-4 percent, but the insurance industry average growth of 30% Develop very quickly. Therefore, the loss of investment income would be equivalent to the rapid development of the insurance industry's stagnation is to use the wrong analysis of the data of the wrong conclusions. Not solely on the basis of capital markets, insurance companies led to the decline in investment income, the rapid development of the insurance industry predicted the end of the era, this view is one-sided. In fact, support the development of elements of the insurance market has not changed.
Five major factors that support the rapid development of the insurance industry
Reporter: What do you think the insurance industry to support the rapid development of the main factors which?
Sun Qi Xiang: There are five major factors. First, China's economy will continue rapid development. International experience shows that, assuming other conditions remain unchanged, the insurance industry and economic development of a strong positive correlation between. In other words, the more economic development, more development of the insurance industry. Second, the policy-related factors. In China, the role of government is stronger than in other countries. And from the fundamentals, the policy is very clear signal, the CPC Central Committee and State Council, many of the documents reflect, the development of the country's position is that commercial insurance firm, which will continue down the road. Third, the factors of ownership. The development of commercial insurance and ownership are closely related. With the Chinese people's private property to increase, particularly as housing, automobiles, private property, protection of property demand is growing. At the same time, personal financial assets increased financial assets will have a hedge against inflation, the need for value-added, on the need for financial assets portfolio. In developed countries like the United States of the general population of financial assets, insurance assets accounted for 30% of the bank savings account for 30% of other investment accounts for about 30%. In China, however, a very small proportion of insurance assets, this shows that the gap between the demand for insurance is still very large. Fourth, industrialization and urbanization process continued. Along with such a process, to the city to the farmers, out of the land protection will inevitably seek to protect the currency, accident insurance, health insurance, life insurance industry will have great demand. Foreign experience shows that the life period of great development occurred in the city to speed up the process of the stage. Fifth, the Chinese socialist market economic system, the target unchanged. I have pointed out that in the event of a major disaster, mainly relying on insurance or financial means to means to help restore the economy, in fact, we can see an economic nature: the former is a government-led economy, or the planned economy, which is The real market economy. China to establish a market economic system, the goal is established, was born in the development and perfection of market economy is one essential element - is the title insurance system should be of significance. This shows that no matter from the point of view that the insurance industry's growing support factors still exist, the next great opportunity or insurance, a lot of opportunities for the market, the key is how the insurance industry to design more innovative new products to meet consumer Those needs.
There is another evidence and decide whether or not emerging markets are very important indicators, is to look at the capital. Over the years, foreign investment, private capital has been on China's insurance industry has maintained a strong confidence, which is to prove the basis for the development of the insurance industry, growth factors or inherited exist.
Of course, the set of confidence in the prospects for the development of the insurance market at the same time, it should be noted that in previous years, I propose restricting the development of the insurance market in several "trap" still exists. Specifically, the "trap", "human resources trap" and "trap system", if not across these "traps", will be the formation of the insurance industry "development paradox", that is, the faster the pace of development, the risk will be more Great. In addition, the insurance industry over the past 20 years of growth, or too much emphasis on the pace of development. But at the same time, I also emphasized that can not be said that because of the financial crisis, the insurance companies do not invest a business, investment or development of the insurance industry's lifeline. However, the insurance industry, after all, the main business is based on an investment, must be the main business investment as a condition of support.
Open up investment channels for insurance should strengthen supervision and prevent risks to combine
Reporter: Recently, the State Council has approved the insurance company's investment in unlisted shares, the China Insurance Regulatory Commission is developing rules of the pilot; At the same time, in the process of amending the "insurance law" could allow insurance companies to invest real estate. In your opinion, the investment channels for insurance re-open very soon whether it will bring improve return on investment insurance in the future?
Sun Qi Xiang: From the 90-year medium-term, insurance investment has experienced a number of channels open. At present, foreign insurance companies can invest in the channel can be said that the Chinese are basically open up the. However, investment and insurance companies are not the same as other investment, is the first security. From the insurance supervision, opening up channels for a given insurance companies the right to choose; because of the insurance companies, this is an opportunity, when the unemployment insurance have the opportunity to make money, not because the authorities did not open up channels of communication and Its loss of access to income opportunities, so that by operating losses. But at the same time, regulators need to protect the interests of consumers; it needs in accordance with the investment environment, the ability to operate insurance companies, such as the solvency status of a set proportion of the investment, it is necessary regulatory measures. If the management of insurance institutions is very good, with very strong risk control, is a real shareholders, the people responsible for the security of the enterprise, in a number of channels open, it will be in accordance with their own strengths and changes in the market, many investment Select channel-to-business security is the best combination of channels, rather than gambling, select the "hit on" their income is high, the failure of the authorities by the end, reveal all the details of the financial portfolio.
Investment income of insurance companies, the company depends on the future development of the strategic model. If the policy is an opportunity for all the same, to seize the state has increased infrastructure investment opportunities in the economy has maintained sustained growth, insurance funds to enter the infrastructure sector, the share of investment results in a positive sense, There is no problem. However, I do foreign insurance company balance sheets, such as the United States, its investment is relatively wide, but the insurance company's investment is about 70% of the debt investments, shares a very small proportion, the general account of the equity investments account for only 6 % To 7%, with an average below 10%. Although in its special account, stock investment accounted for 80-100 percent, but the United States from the last century occurred in the mid-70 vote even date insurance, investment and even the risk or the proportion of relatively small, most of life on a regular basis Such a structure of the insurance industry reflects the U.S. insurance industry, the main location is relatively clear. As a result, the insurance industry open up investment channels, to enhance the company's investment income is a positive signal, but regulatory authorities, opening up channels to control the ratio to step up monitoring to guard against risks, should be combined.
Game three doctors and patients to address security needs to further explore the relationship between
Reporter: Not long ago, the National Development and Reform Commission on deepening medical reform public opinion, the insurance industry in the new medical reform program in the commercial health insurance is quite unknown micro-positioning speech. You Beijing University as a medical reform program one of the members of the group, how to treat this problem?
Sun Qi Xiang: I think the health insurance business in the medical reform should occupy a certain status, play an important role. At that time, medical reform program of Beijing University in research, we in the group discussion, pointed out that Chinese health care system entirely by government-led, to implement universal health insurance, national financial resources are not allowed. Therefore, the solution should be as old-age security issues: the basic security should be borne by the Government; beyond the basic protection, from commercial insurance to supplement. After the study, we have made health insurance for all three pillars of the framework of the reform ideas and suggestions. However, the current practice of health insurance, is beset with problems. How to solve the health care institutions, insurance companies and patients of the three games of the relationship between the need to be further explored. Not handled properly, a lot of moral hazard, insurance companies lose out, it has been reluctant to do so. At present, China is a very interesting phenomenon is that if the people most in need of the public to investigate what insurance, health insurance is always the first, second position, which we can see the great demand for space; from the supply side to That insurance companies are very cautious. I often talk about the special nature of insurance. In accordance with the law of supply and demand economics, said that if the demand for a product, the price will go up, thus attracting more product providers to enter the field of multi-product supply, and prices naturally down. However, no insurance, insurance of a demand for more shows that the probability of large losses, the provider may face greater risks of the operation. In other words, assuming other conditions remain unchanged, insurance companies sell more policies, the payment will be higher, and this is the insurance industry in a departure from the phenomenon of supply and demand, which is policyholders, "adverse selection". Therefore, I think, first make sure that in our health care system, medical reform program must be stressed that commercial insurance is an indispensable part of improving the system have an important role; the second to recognize the current level of development of the insurance industry, risk control, Relatively low level of professional services, including hospitals, patients, data, IT systems, such as professionals with many unresolved issues, including the need for the insurance industry, the society as a whole.
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